CMV: the EU shouldn't join the BRI

The U.S. China trade war has significant implications. Zhou of the South China Morning Post writes Chinese firms are less enthusiastic about investing in the country’s trade and infrastructure strategy and Beijing is more wary of throwing money at the BRI as it comes under pressure from the trade war and falling forex reserves. Because of this, China lacks the funding to continue the development of the BRI. Meyer of UPenn writes China’s planned to use at least $400 billion in funding from government banks, but the program has ballooned beyond infrastructure construction. BRI lending by major [Chinese]banks has dropped by 89% since 2015, and lending by commercial banks has ceased entirely. The EU joining the BRI solves these problems. Ciutrain of the European Institute of Romania finds that China cannot financially and logistically manage such an ambitious project alone. The only possible partner is the EU.
We agree that the EU is the only viable option to fund the BRI. Now, Climate change is a looming threat, yet it’s consequences are preventable. Turrentine of the National Resources Defence Council writes that climate scientists concluded that if humans don’t take immediate action to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040, the consequences will be baked into the planet.
China, once a key contributor to climate change has cleaned up their act. The World Economic Forum finds after years of industrialization, China’s environmental challenges are nearing a tipping point. The factories and power plants that have have polluted its air, water and soil, to the point where environmental hazards could lead to a significant risk to China’s society and economy. Because of this, China has taken steps to improve the environment domestically. Gardiner of National Geographic writes that Chinese car emissions standards set to take effect in 2020 will be comparable to Western ones. But the focus remains on industry. China has closed 103 coal-fired power plants and it cut steel production by 50 million tons. This is significant since China, a country that the Resources Institute finds contributes 26% of greenhouse gas emissions is taking steps to limit their environmental impact.
These actions have been counteracted by the BRI. The first reason why is because of coal plants. Lu of Friends of the Earth writes that “As China has reduced its dependence on coal domestically it has expanded overseas, to relieve excess domestic capacity.” This is quantified as Tabuchi finds that China is planning 1600 coal projects in 62 countries with the BRI. This leads Lelyveld of the RFA to conclude that, Chinese financial institutions are the world's largest funder of overseas coal plants. These coal plants are problematic since Mooney of the Washington Post finds that New coal plants that are planned could produce 150 tons of CO2 during their lifetime.
The second reason why is because of general infrastructure. The construction and use of the infrastructure planned with the BRI produces emissions. Zadek of Brookings states New infrastructure accounts for half of new sources of emissions. Investments BRI countries could make up 60 percent of global infrastructure, so BRI countries could be the largest source of growing carbon emissions over this critical period.
The third reason is deforestation. Losos of the World Bank reports that BRI roads and railways changing transport costs can shift markets and human populations. This can open frontiers to settlements that involve deforestation. Deforestation is problematic since Bennett of the Climate Institute reports 25% greenhouse gas production comes from deforestation since forests store double the CO2 than the CO2 in the atmosphere, so when deforested occurs, CO2 stored in trees is released into the atmosphere.
The impact is forced migration. The BRI’s increase of global emissions surpasses the 1.5 degree limit for climate change. By ignoring the threshold, the BRI exposes the planet to increasingly harmful natural disasters. The National Wildlife Federation finds that Climate change is worsening the impacts of natural disasters, including hurricanes, megafires, droughts, and floods. As natural disasters become worse, people are forced to flee. The World Bank reports that if greenhouse emissionf15
s aren’t cut, there will be 140 million climate migrants by 2050.
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